The October Proofs
A visual explainer · updated October 13, 2026

The Kakeya Needle

In 1917 Sōichi Kakeya asked how little room you need to turn a needle around. A century later that question is one of the central open problems in analysis. Hong Wang and Joshua Zahl settled the 3D case in 2025. On October 6, 2026, OpenAI posted a 175-page manuscript claiming the 4D case. Seven steps get you from the needle to the claim, with no formulas you have to follow.

4D claim: posted, not yet independently checked 3D: proved (Wang & Zahl, 2025)
Step 01

Turn a needle around

Put a needle of length 1 on a table. You want to spin it half a turn so it points the other way, using as little floor as possible.

The obvious move is to spin it around its middle. That sweeps a disk with area about 0.785.

You can do better by sliding while you turn. Trace a three-cornered curve called a deltoid and the needle turns inside it with exactly half that area, about 0.393. Switch the panel to see it.

For a while people suspected the deltoid was the best possible. It isn't. In 1928 Abram Besicovitch showed the needle can turn inside a region of any area you name, however small, if you let it take long detours.

Region area: π/8 ≈ 0.393 · needle length 1
Step 02

Shrink the area toward zero

Now drop the rule that the needle has to move. Ask only for a set that contains a needle pointing in every direction. That is a Kakeya set.

The panel shows the idea behind Besicovitch's construction, in a version called a Perron tree. A triangle already holds a needle for every direction inside its angle. Cut it into thin slivers, then slide the slivers sideways so they pile onto each other.

Sliding doesn't rotate anything, so every direction is still there. But the overlaps eat area. More slivers, less area left. Carry this on forever and you get a Kakeya set with zero area.

So area is the wrong ruler. Something can contain a needle in every direction and still take up no room at all.

This construction is slow: the area falls roughly like 1/log of the number of slivers, which is why the panel stops near a third of the original.

…
Step 03

A better ruler: dimension

If area can be zero, we need a finer measure of size. That measure is dimension, and box counting is the easiest way to see it.

Lay a grid of boxes with side δ over the shape and count the boxes it touches. Then halve δ. A line needs about 2 times as many boxes (2 = 2¹, so dimension 1). A filled square needs 4 times as many (4 = 2², dimension 2). A Sierpinski triangle needs 3 times as many, so its dimension is log 3 / log 2 ≈ 1.585. It has zero area but it's bigger than any line.

The Kakeya conjecture: a Kakeya set in n-dimensional space always has dimension n. It can have zero volume, but it can never be thin in this sense.

The 4D claim uses Hausdorff dimension, a stricter cousin of box counting. Proving full Hausdorff dimension is the harder of the two.

…
Step 04

From needles to tubes

To actually prove things, mathematicians thicken each needle into a tube of width δ. One tube per direction, and the question becomes: how much can these tubes pile up on each other?

Try the arrangements. A bush runs every tube through one point. They overlap at the center, then fan out and stop overlapping. A hairbrush threads tubes through a single stem; Thomas Wolff used this picture in 1995 to prove dimension at least 2.5 in 3D. Slabs pack tubes into thin flat layers, the kind of structure Wang and Zahl had to rule out.

The conjecture in this language: no arrangement wins by much. As the tubes get thinner, the overlap factor can grow, but slower than any power of 1/δ.

Volumes are Monte Carlo estimates from 15,000 random points, recomputed each time you change the setup.

drag to rotate
…
Step 05

A century of progress

Roy Davies settled the plane in 1971. Three dimensions took until 2025. Each step on the chart is a separate paper, often years of work, pushing the proven lower bound on dimension up a little. In 4D the best general bound in print sat just above 3 until this month.

  1. 1917
    Kakeya asks for the smallest region to turn a needle in.
  2. 1928
    Besicovitch: any small area works. Zero-area Kakeya sets exist.
  3. 1971
    Davies proves full dimension in the plane.
  4. 1995
    Wolff's hairbrush: 2.5 in 3D, (n+2)/2 in general.
  5. 2022
    Wang & Zahl prove the "sticky" special case in 3D.
  6. Feb 2025
    Wang & Zahl post a 127-page proof of the full 3D conjecture.
  7. Jul 2026
    Hong Wang receives a Fields Medal for this work.
  8. Oct 6, 2026
    OpenAI posts a 175-page manuscript claiming full dimension in 4D.
Step 06

Seeing four dimensions

Nobody can picture 4D directly, so we cheat in two ways.

A shadow: rotate the 4D set and project it into 3D, the way a spinning cube casts a changing 2D shadow. Color stands in for the hidden fourth coordinate.

A slice: cut the 4D set with a 3D cross-section, like an MRI cutting a body. Each needle crosses the slice at a single point, so a slice of a 4D Kakeya set looks like dust. Move the slice and watch the dust shift.

Why 4D is hard: Larry Guth has pointed out that the central theorem in the 3D proof stops working in four dimensions. You can't just copy the argument up a dimension.

drag to rotate
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Rough structure of the 4D argument (simplified)
AssumeSome Kakeya set in 4D has dimension below 4. The goal is a contradiction.
↓ look at how the needles through a typical point bunch together
Case · spread outNeedles point every which way. Tools that reward spread-out directions force more volume than the assumption allows.
Case · flat 3D layersNeedles bunch into 3D slices of 4D space. Each piece starts to look like a 3D problem, where Wang and Zahl's results apply.
Case · 2D planesNeedles bunch into planes. Here the paper uses Wang and Zahl's volume estimates for unions of convex sets.
↓ every case contradicts the assumption
ConcludeEvery 4D Kakeya set has full Hausdorff dimension 4.
This sketch is assembled from press summaries of the paper (36Kr / QbitAI coverage), not from checking its 175 pages. The case labels are a simplification; the real case split is far more technical.
Step 07

Where the claim stands

The manuscript is titled Every four-dimensional Kakeya set has full Hausdorff dimension, dated September 24, 2026, and lists one author: OpenAI. It went up on October 6 as part of a GitHub release from an unreleased internal model. A companion 97-page paper claims the 3D Kakeya maximal function conjecture, a stronger statement than the one Wang and Zahl proved.

175
pages in the 4D manuscript
722
manuscripts in the same release
372
result families they're grouped into
3
manuscripts withdrawn within a day

What it claims

  • The set version of the Kakeya conjecture in 4D, for Hausdorff dimension.
  • If correct, 4D goes from "special cases and bounds near 3" to fully solved.
  • It builds directly on Wang and Zahl; Hong Wang's name runs all through the references.

What it doesn't claim

  • The 4D maximal function conjecture, the stronger tube version, stays open.
  • Dimension 5 and up are not fully proved; the paper gives only a lower bound there.
  • No Millennium Prize problem is involved anywhere in the release.

Why it's unverified

  • No outside expert has confirmed the argument yet. 175 pages takes months to referee.
  • OpenAI's own README says unformalized results could have errors.
  • A sign error forced three withdrawals a day after release, one argument plus two that depended on it.
  • The model, prompts and compute aren't public, so nobody outside can rerun it.

Reactions split hard. Columbia's Michael Harris said he wouldn't read the papers. Oxford's Ursula Martin called the release a messy first draft. Anthropic's Levent Alpöge went the other way and called it the most important moment in the history of mathematics. Cornell's Alex Townsend said OpenAI should have led with the results already checked in Lean.

What to watch: harmonic analysts who know the Wang and Zahl machinery reading the 4D argument, a Lean formalization of this specific paper, and whether it survives refereeing at a journal. Until then the right word is claimed.

Sources
  1. OpenAI, 4D Kakeya manuscript (GitHub)
  2. OpenAI, 3D Kakeya maximal conjecture manuscript (GitHub)
  3. 36Kr: OpenAI's 175-page 4D proof manuscript
  4. 36Kr / QbitAI: what the two Kakeya papers achieve
  5. AI Weekly, summarizing Nature's report on reactions
  6. NYU Shanghai RITS: release details and withdrawals
  7. Katz & Zahl, planebrush bound 3.059 in 4D (arXiv)
  8. Quanta: the 3D Kakeya proof
  9. École polytechnique: Hong Wang's Fields Medal