A capability threshold in a published safety policy revised rather than triggered
Nothing recorded against this yet.
The Reformation Watch
The essay ends with a prediction and seven things that would show it holding or failing. This is what has actually been recorded against each.
A daily job diffs the labs’ and the movement’s own published governance against these seven. Nothing reaches this page automatically: every entry below was reviewed by a person first, and every machine-found one had to quote a sentence that genuinely appears in the document it came from. Most of these are empty, and an empty one is the honest result.
Ledger as of · 1 day ago
The endowment winning
Restraint holding exactly as long as the patron finds restraint useful.
A refusal of revenue quietly not repeated once a competitor takes the contract
Watching: Anthropic refused Pentagon terms in February 2026 and held the line through six months of litigation. Fires when the same category of work is later accepted, the usage-policy line grounding the refusal is removed, or a competitor takes the contract and the refusal is not restated.
A resignation on principle that produces no letter
Nothing recorded against this yet.
A trust or foundation whose composition is adjusted in the year before a listing
Watching: The essay's closing turns on two confidential S-1 filings. Governance composition adjusted in the year before a listing is indicator 4. Fires when trustees, directors or the powers attached to a governance body change while a listing is in prospect.
The creed winning
Held to the same standard. Anthropic's six months in court is one of these, and one is not a pattern.
A shipped product delayed past a quarter for a stated safety reason
Nothing recorded against this yet.
A company lobbying against a rule that would have helped it
Anthropic · · entered by hand · counted in the essay
Refused Pentagon terms permitting use for all lawful purposes, held lines on lethal autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance, absorbed a federal supply-chain-risk designation for it, and litigated for six months. Judge Rita Lin vacated the designation in a fifty-nine page summary judgment.
Not a clean victory. Anthropic lost its bid for emergency relief in the D.C. Circuit in April and the government's appeal of the earlier injunction is held in abeyance. One instance is not a pattern.
SourceA governance body outvoting its own founders
Nothing recorded against this yet.
Nothing in the creeds will settle it. The structure will settle it: who can remove whom, on what vote, and what happens to the money when they try. Read the essay.